civics, current events, democracy, government, history, politics

The American Legacy of War Without End – Supplemental

  US Interventionist Report Card

  I accept that this list is over simplifying what are very complex issues, but in general, I believe my evaluation is accurate.

What better argument could there be to intervene less and more intelligently than through analysis of the actual results of our interventions.

Korean War 1950-1953 -Objective: 1. Prevent North Korea from taking over South Korea – Result: Success. 2. Stop the spread of Communism  – Result: Failure.

Laotian Civil War 1953-1975 – Objective – Stop the spread of Communism into Laos – Result: Failure.

Iran Operation Ajax – Objective: Install Pro-West regime – Result: Initially success, ultimately failure. Secondary failure was giving terrorists a great recruiting tool for decades.

Lebanon 1958, and again from 1982-1984 – 1958 Objective Check the spread of Communism – Result: Success. 1982 Objective – Stability in region – result: failure.

Bay of Pigs 1961 – Objective overthrow Cuban government – result: failure.

Vietnam 1965-1973 – Objective: Stop the spread of Communism to Vietnam – result: failure.

Dominican Civil War 1965 – Objective: Protect US interests in region – result: success.

Bolivian Insurgency 1966-67 Objective: Unknown. “Protect US interests”? – result: unkown.

Cambodian Civil War 1967-75 – Objective: Stop the spread of Communism into Cambodia – result: failure.

War in South Zaire/Angola 1978 – Objective: stabilize region – result: failure.

Operation Eagle Claw 1980 – Objective: Rescue hostages – result: failure.

Granada 1983 – Objective: rescue students -result: success.

Invasion of Panama 1989-1990 – Objective: Protect US interests in the Canal Zone – result: success.

Invasion of Haiti Objective: Stability and humanitarian aid – result: unknown.

Bosnian War 1994-1995 – Objective: end war – result: success.

Kosovo War 1998-1999 – Objective: end war – result: success.

Operation Infinite Reach 1998 – Objective: punish and degrade al-Qaida – result: failure.

Iraq Gulf War 1990-91, No Fly Zone Enforcement 1991-2003, Iraq War 2003- Objective: unknown.

Libya 1981, 1986, 1989, 2011, 2016-present – Objective: unknown.

Afghanistan 2001- present – Objective: unknown.

War in North-West Pakistan 2004- present – Objective: unknown.

Somali Civil War 1992-1995, 2009- present – Objective: unknown.

Syrian Civil War 2014- present – Objective: unknown.

Yemen Civil War 2015-present – Objective: unknown.

 

Daniel Cashman, EAMP, MS (AOM)

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The American Legacy of War Without End Part 2

Part 1 was my attempt to very briefly outline an American history drenched in blood and religion. I think that it is important to have an understanding of that history to contextualize the post WW2 era of American interventionism.

Below is a list of recent conflicts that the United States has been involved in, with a summary and a short commentary. I have endeavored to include everything that involved combat, but I can’t guarantee that it is comprehensive. The US military is engaged in these kinds of operations year-round in every part of the globe, and many operations involve a handful of personnel and are secret. I leave it to the reader to decide the success or failure of each.

As you read through this list, consider that more U.S. troops have died in war zones this year than in 2016 — the first time in six years that the number of service members killed overseas has increased over the previous year. (13)

Korean War 1950-1953 – Ostensibly we were there to help South Korea repel an invasion by North Korea, what we were really doing was trying to stop the so called “Domino Effect” and prevent the spread of Communism. With the most positive interpretation of the results of this war, we fought to a stalemate. In a more realistic reading, what we did was set up North Korea to be the rogue regime that exists currently, isolated and threatening to launch nuclear missiles at the US.

Laotian Civil War 1953-1975 – Fought between the Communists and the Royal Lao Government, overshadowed by the Vietnam War, it is often forgotten that the CIA, US Special Forces, and regular military forces fought here for years. If the goal of this war was to stop the spread of Communism, well, Laos is a Marxist-Leninist one party Socialist Republic currently.

Iran Operation Ajax – 1953 where the US supported the successful overthrow of Prime Minister Mosaddegh, giving a monarchy power over an elected government to establishing a pro-America regime. Out actions there created decades of discontent among Iranians and led to the Iranian Revolution in 1979. Remember that next time you hear this administration say something about how Iran is the enemy. Not only were our efforts ultimately unsuccessful, in that we ended up with an anti-American regime in power, but we also gave terrorist recruiters a bounty of ammunition to use in their recruitment campaigns.

Lebanon 1958, and again from 1982-1984 – The first intervention in ’58 was the first application of the so-called Eisenhower Doctrine the stated purpose of which was to protect regimes threatened by Communism.  The US sent about 14,000 troops to Lebanon to prop up a pro-Western government. The result was a moderate government and a peaceful transition. But it also set a precedent for US involvement in internal Arab disputes.  Later, in ’82 we found ourselves back for the Lebanese Civil War.  Some scholars suggest that our involvement may have hastened the demise of the Soviet Union and the ending of the Cold War. It also led to the death of 241 US servicemembers in a barracks suicide bombing. It caused additional problems with Syria as shooting exchanged happened between Syrian batteries and patrolling American warships. All told the US lost 265 servicemembers during the conflict.

Bay of Pigs 1961 – This was just a straight-up failed CIA sponsored invasion of Cuba. Not sure how you could swing this any other way.

Vietnam 1965-1973 – Long, costly war to stop the spread of Communism, interestingly known as the “Resistance War Against America” inside Vietnam. Total estimated cost of the war in 2015 dollars over 1 Trillion. (14) If the purpose of the war was to stop the spread of Communism, well, today Vietnam is a Marxist-Leninist one party Socialist Republic.

Dominican Civil War 1965 – Allegations of foreign support to the civil war led to US involvement, ostensibly to protect 3500 US citizens and US interests in the country.  5 US Killed in Action, another 31 wounded. End result? A bunch of US citizens were evacuated safely, but its not clear what the further ramifications were.

Bolivian Insurgency 1966-67 All through the 1960’s the CIA gave Bolivian dictators money, and the US actively supported these dictators against local rebels. This resulted in thousands of deaths and promoted political instability across Central and South America that is still being felt today. The US famously helped track down the guerilla leader Che Guevara, turning him over to be murdered by the Bolivian government.

Cambodian Civil War 1967-75 – This is a complicated event; a civil war between the Khmer Rouge supported by the North Vietnamese against the Khmer Republic supported by the South Vietnamese and the United States. The US was there primarily to help the war effort in Vietnam, although it fit into the rubric of stopping Communist aggression as well. A couple of hundred thousand people died in the war, the Khmer Rouge won, and it led to the Killing Fields genocide perpetrated by Pol Pot.

War in South Zaire/Angola 1978 – I don’t even know if I can unpack this one. Starting in 1975 Angola underwent a civil war, that really didn’t end until 2002. It was a power struggle between two former liberation movements – the MPLA and UNITA. It also was a surrogate battle ground for the US and Russia during the Cold War. In spite of opposition from the State Department and the CIA, President Ford pushed for US involvement. We ended up giving millions of dollars to factional groups the results of which were millions dead and displaced, an intensification of the Cold War, and the trashing of US reputation as we once again foolishly intervene in a foreign conflict that ultimately did not benefit anyone.

Operation Eagle Claw 1980 – Another straight up disaster. This was a rescue operation aimed at freeing US Embassy workers taken hostage in Iran, ordered by President Carter. This was actually one of Delta Forces first missions. Essentially, due to lack of communication, poor planning, and bad luck, the operation failed, it was discovered by Iran, and led to the US being humiliated. (A helicopter landed on an airplane at the rendezvous point in Iran.) No hostages were rescued as a result and I can’t image there is any way to spin this except failure. (15)

Granada 1983 – In the early 80’s there were about a thousand US students studying medicine in Grenada. There had been a coup, and a curfew put into place. There were rumors of unrest and President Reagan used this opportunity to send in US troops. (There was no actual indications that any US civilians were in danger (16)). The US had 19 servicemembers killed and 116 wounded in the conflict, ultimately rescuing the students and restoring the previous government. Conventional wisdom says that more than any other factor. Reagan was looking for an opportunity to fight the Cold War on another front. We did however, accomplish our stated mission. But consider this, a group of teenagers with World War I era rifles took on the most highly trained army in the world and gave it a bloody nose. This event is very interestingly described in David Hackworth’s book “About Face”.

Invasion of Panama 1989-1990 – This is another conflict that will be hard to summarize in a short paragraph.  President Bush stated that we were protecting US citizens and US interested in the Canal Zone, as well as combatting drug trafficking. We were successful, albeit with about 1000 casualties to include 23 dead US servicemembers and 325 wounded. The operation also left about 300 dead civilians and 20,000 civilians displaced by the fighting. One of the things that came out during this conflict was that the enemy leader, Manuel Noriega, had been working for the CIA since 1967. This fact further bolstered the degradation of US influence and an increase in mistrust of the US across Central and South America.

Invasion of Haiti 1915-1934, and again 1994-1995 – Another country where the US has a long history of intervention and violence. The US first invaded Haiti in 1915 ostensibly to quell a nationwide strike and an ongoing local rebellion. (17). But really, US Marines were sent there because President Wilson “…feared that European interests might reduce American commercial and political influence in Haiti and the region surrounding the Panama Canal.” (18). One of the first actions carried out by the US after the invasion was to seize Haiti’s financial reserves and rewrite its Constitution so that US citizens could own land there. For the next 19 years we occupied Haiti and told the world we were engaged in nation building, during which time 15,000 Haitians were killed and forced labor gangs were used to build roads and schools. The most recent invasion was done to remove a dictator, which was done with minimal casualties. We eventually turned control of this operation over to the UN and it became a humanitarian mission.

Bosnian War 1994-1995 – Part of the break up of Yugoslavia. A horrific civil war took place that saw genocide and murder on a wide scale. The United Nations went in to try and stabilize the region and the US supported that effort. After 3 and a half years of fighting, the Dayton peace accords were signed. The US has been involved for many years – both in the conduct of stability operations and with the tracking down of suspected war criminals.

Kosovo War 1998-1999 – Another casualty of the breakup of Yugoslavia. The US was once again involved under the auspices of the UN and NATO.

Operation Infinite Reach 1998 – This is the name given to the mission that launched cruise missiles into Sudan and Afghanistan, ordered by President Clinton to attack al-Qaida. Of interest as it marks the first time the US engaged in a pre-emptive strike against a non-state actor. Although it appears that we did successfully strike one or more al-Qaida training camps in Afghanistan, the results from the missiles launched into Sudan are not as clear. This stated objective of these strikes was to punish al-Qaida for attacks at US Embassy’s in Tanzania and Kenya. It is not clear that our response punished the people involved, or degraded al-Qaida’s abilities in any way.

The following conflicts are currently being perpetrated by the United States. There could be others, but the White House has stopped publishing troop deployment information (19). I leave them without commentary because I have no idea what we are doing there nor do I know what objectives we are pursuing.

Iraq Gulf War 1990-91, No Fly Zone Enforcement 1991-2003, Iraq War 2003-

Libya 1981, 1986, 1989, 2011, 2016-present –

Afghanistan 2001- present –

War in North-West Pakistan 2004- present –

Somali Civil War 1992-1995, 2009- present –

Syrian Civil War 2014- present –

Yemen Civil War 2015-present –

Additionally, the US currently has troops stationed in Japan, Germany, South Korea, Italy, UK, Kuwait, Bahrain, Spain, Qatar, Turkey, Djibouti, Jordan, UAE, Austria, Belgium, Cuba, Romania, and El Salvador. (19)

Contrary to what I believe is a commonly held belief by Americans, the US has no moral high ground in how it conducts itself on the world stage. Moreover, if we judge the results of our military actions based on the accomplishment of the stated objective we are failures. Even worse, I would argue that the world sees us act irresponsibly and with greed.  These acts further tarnish our reputation and limits our effectiveness.

We get away with failure because 1. We have the resources to throw at it, and 2. We rarely have to live with the consequences of our actions, at least not directly.

Our poorly thought out policies and inept mission execution make the world a more violent and less stable place.

My motivation in writing this in large part comes from my belief that basic facts about our history and a false narrative woven around American exceptionalism lead to a more dangerous future.

 

Daniel Cashman, EAMP, MS (AOM)

 

  1. http://www.newsweek.com/trump-us-military-deaths-war-zones-are-first-time-six-years-716981
  2. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vietnam_War
  3. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Eagle_Claw
  4. http://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2014/03/flashback-why-ronald-reagan-invaded-grenada/
  5. https://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/haiti-us-occupation-hundred-year-anniversary
  6. Ibid
  7. http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-trump-deployment-20170330-story.html
  8. http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017/08/22/u-s-active-duty-military-presence-overseas-is-at-its-smallest-in-decades/

 

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The American Legacy of War Without End (Part 1 of 2)

Most of my writing is done to teach myself about complex issues and events and bring clarity to my own thinking. I post them hoping that someone else may benefit in the same way. My formal education is in Healthcare, but I spent much of my adult life working both in the military and with the government.

I spent 10 years in the Army – and I have been involved in many of the conflicts that have afflicted the world in the last few decades – the Cold War, the Korean conflict, and Operation Iraqi Freedom.

I am a student of history and I know that “truth” is often ephemeral, and what one learns about history depends on who wrote the book.

Part 1 explores an uncomfortable truth about America’s violent past in an attempt to set the stage for what I hope will be an argument against American interventionism in Part 2.

War has been a part of the American character since the first European settlers arrived. Starting in 1607 with the founding of Jamestown. The expedition to Virginia was sponsored by the Virginia Company of London who were willing to shell out money for this endeavor because they hoped to cash in on the resources found in the virgin American soil. (1)

The Virginia Company sent settlers to Virginia for almost two decades in an attempt to turn a profit.  The never did, but they did set in motion a precedent for American religious extremism, violence, and capitalism.  It’s worth mentioning that the first encounter with the local Powhatan tribe had the English shooting them. (2) The Jamestown settlers, along with other English settlers, spent decades fighting and murdering the local natives in what would end up being called the “Anglo-Powhatan Wars” (3)

In the interest of brevity, I will lump the contentious history of early America from 1607 to 1775 together and say that Jamestown was the rule and not the exception. 182 years of European (and other) settlers coming to America to conquer, kill, and steal from the people that were already living here.

Before moving on to the Revolution, I need to point out the close connection early America had with the Church. For example, to hold political office in early English colonies, affiliation with the Anglican church was a requirement. In fact, colonial Virginia law required Virginians to worship in a state church funded by their taxes. (4) These feelings eventually started to give way to more tolerant views that coincided with the European Enlightenment (5), but close ties between the church and government have never left the culture of religion in America.

From 1775 to 1783 saw frustrated American colonists dissatisfied with distant English rule – frustrated with a decade of rising taxes and lack of representation in the English parliament resulted in a guerilla war starting, with the rebels seeking to throw of the yoke of the English. (6)  The First Constitutional Congress met in Philadelphia in 1774 and listed their grievances as “taxation without representation and the maintenance of a British army on their soil without their permission”. (7)

The years from 1776 (the Chickamunga War against the Cherokee) to 1861 (the onset of the Civil War) saw another 85 years of nearly constant conflict. Not only with the British, but also with Spain (War of 1812, First Seminole War 1817), Mexico (Mexican American War 1846-48, First and Second Cortina War 1859-1861), the Ottoman Empire (First Barbary War 1801-1805), Morocco (First Barbary War 1801-1805), Algeria (Second Barbary War 1815), Fiji (First Fiji Expedition 1855, Second Fiji Expedition 1859), and China (Second Opium War 1856-1859. These years also brought untold horror to the Native American tribes across the continent.

The second half of the 19th was characterized by the US governments intense interest in expanding to the Pacific Ocean. By the 1850’s nearly all Native American tribes were located West of the Mississippi River (8) In 1871 the government passed the Indian Appropriation Act (9) the US simply decided that the native tribes were simply wards of the United States instead of sovereign nations. (10) This Act paved the way for the US government to at-will seize lands occupied by Native Americans. The General Allotment Act of 1887 broke up historically native lands and gave them to whites. Additionally, constant wars of aggression were propagated against native tribes (Apache Wars, Puget Sound War, Seminole Wars, Yakima War, Utah War, Navajo Wars, Paiute War, Yavapai Wars, Dakota War, Colorado War, Snake War, Powder River War, Red Cloud’s War, the Comanche Campaign, the Modoc War, Red River War, Great Sioux War, Buffalo Hunters War, Nez Perce War, Bannock War, Sheepeater War, Victorio’s War, White River War, Pine Ridge Campaign, and the Yaqui War).

Over and above these campaigns is a long and shameful list of massacres committed against the native tribes. I won’t get into the details in this essay but here is a list:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Indian_massacres

The era from the Civil War (1861) to the onset of the First World War (1914) was also characterized by violence against Spain (Spanish American War 1898), Mexico (the Las Cuevas War 1875, Border War 1910-1919, the Occupation of Veracruz 1914), Japan (Shimonoseki War 1863-64), Korea (1871), Philippines (1899-1902), Cuba (Negro Rebellion 1912), Nicaragua (1912-1933), Haiti (1915-1934), the Occupation of the Dominican Republic 1916-1924), and China (Boxer Rebellion) 1899-1901.

I have provided this short summary of pre-World War I American conflicts to make a point. From the earliest days of American culture, we have been a people motivated by the acquisition of capital and are willing to commit unbelievable violence (justified as needed by religion) to achieve it. (Sort of the Evangelical version of selling indulgences).

Of course, history can’t be undone. It should, however, be taught. At no point in my education (and I have a Master’s degree) has history ever been presented to me in this way. Since elementary school we are taught of the absolute right of America to do anything we want, in a consequence-free environment. Our Manifest Destiny is to be sole arbiter of fairness in the world. We have god on our side.

To deny the truth of our history is to deny any hope of justice for the future.

I don’t want to re-litigate the reasons and motivations at play that led to these conflicts. I would however like to look a little more closely at the wars of the 20th century.

Early in the 20th Century the worst conflict in human history (up to that date) was fought. The dark years from 1914 to 1918 saw the First World War, the erroneously titled “War to End All Wars”. 16 million people died during this four-year period, nearly half of them non-combatants.

To our credit, the US did try to stay out of the war, and did not join until 1917. We were never officially one of the Allies, and settled for the title “Associate Power”. A complicated intertwining of alliances coupled with a European arms race and simmering national, religious, and cultural angst created the fuel for this war.

I don’t know how our participation in World War I ultimately reflects upon us. I suppose that our participation brought it to a close quicker than had we stayed out.

Unfortunately, nations don’t exist to foster karmic good, as we will see with World War II.

Probably more has been written about World War II than any other conflict, and I surely have nothing new to add to it’s analysis. But I would like to point this out.

Prior to US involvement there was widespread belief that America should stay out of it – the War was considered a “European” problem. President Roosevelt, who was very open to getting involved, began to set the tone as early as 1940 during one of his radio broadcast “fireside chats”. On May 26th, 1940, soon after cities in Europe began falling to the Nazi’s, he talked to Americans about how the isolationists were wrong. One of the commonly held beliefs was that Roosevelt wasn’t able to act unilaterally to enter America into war, and needed Congressional approval. (How different things appear to be today with Trump acting with impunity). But we didn’t enter the war officially until the Japanese attacked Pearl Harbor in December of 1941. (Also note that it was Germany that declared was on us, not vice-versa).

From September of 1939 to December of 1941 we let the war rage. Roosevelt also got the Lend-Lease Act signed into law allowing him to give materials to the Allies in support of the war into reciprocal payments to be made at a later date.

The Lend Lease Act was a critically important contribution to the success of the war and, although altruistic on its face, was definitely to the benefit of the United States, principally by making the United Kingdom hand over top-secret technologies they had developed like radar and sonar, as well as technologies related to jet engines, superchargers, self-sealing fuel tanks, plastic explosives, and British contributions to the Manhattan Project (11).

Another feature of the Lend Lease Act, as pointed out at the time by Republican senator Robert Taft, was to “give the President power to carry on a kind of undeclared war all over the world, in which America would do everything except actually put soldiers in the front-line trenches where the fighting is.” (12) During an era where Congress felt like it was their duty to be part of the system of checks and balances.

I think that World War Two was likely the last righteous war fought by the United States, even though we ended up holding our allies over the barrel and waiting until the last moment to get involved. How much suffering could have been prevented had we intervened a year earlier?

I will close this part our with an anecdote. In 2003, prior to my own participation in Operation Iraqi Freedom, I went to the Holocaust Museum in Washington DC. The last display there was a small T.V. screen showing, on loop, US reconnaissance flights over concentration camps in 1941 – the suggestion being that we knew about the Holocaust and did nothing to stop it.

 

 

Daniel Cashman, EAMP, MS (AOM)

 

 

  1. https://www.nps.gov/jame/learn/historyculture/the-virginia-company-of-london.htm
  2. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Powhatan
  3. Ibid
  4. http://www.history.org/almanack/life/religion/religiondfn.cfm
  5. https://www.britannica.com/event/Enlightenment-European-history
  6. http://www.history.com/topics/american-revolution/american-revolution-history
  7. Ibid
  8. http://www.victoriana.com/history/nativeamericans.html
  9. https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/25/71
  10. http://www.victoriana.com/history/nativeamericans.html
  11. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lend-Lease
  12. http://www.history.com/topics/world-war-ii/lend-lease-act
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My Periodic Perusal of the #MAGA Hashtag on Social Media

Now and again, in an attempt to both expose myself to opinions outside of my bubble while at the same time keeping tabs on the people who are the antithesis of democracy and American values, I periodically check in on social media by reading entries filed under #MAGA.

Today’s feast yielded an exuberant bounty of lies, disinformation, and prevarication. Here is a summary lifted from one #MAGA supporter’s meme, with my rebuttal. Note that some of the items listed are true, some are false, most are conditionally true, and nearly all of them are bad.

– Net Neutrality: Repealed – Although it is true that the FCC voted to repeal the regulations known as “Net Neutrality”, the legal and legislative fight for the final determination of this is far from over. Republican Marsha Blackburn has introduced a bill called the “Open Internet Preservation Act” that puts back two of the important rules that were revoked by the FCC (blocking websites and slowing websites), which has bipartisan support in the House. (1) Even if there were no challenges to this (and there are a lot), nothing will happen for months as this will still need to be approved by the Office of Management and Budget (2). Moreover, the reality is that multiple States Attorneys have threatened lawsuits and Chuck Schumer, the top Democrat in the Senate has also voiced his support of legislation to fight this (3). Additionally, and this is a common and bizarre theme with the MAGA crowd, these types of de-regulation actions will hurt consumers. The National Small Business Association have come out against the FCC’s decision because they worry that it will negatively impact profits generated by small businesses (4). When one of your MAGA relative’s quips about how happy they are with Net Neutrality being gone, ask them to explain why. Then tell them that their access to porn could be seriously impacted.

– US-Recognized Capital of Israel: Jerusalem – This is true, in the sense that Trump declared this in December of 2017. But he was a little late. President Bush Sr. declared the same thing in the early 1990’s (5). In 1995, the US Congress declared “Jerusalem should be recognized as the Capital of the State of Israel.” (6) In 2008 Candidate Barack Obama said that Jerusalem should be the capital of Israel (7) although he quickly retracted it. Of even more interest is Rex Tillerson coming out immediately after Trump made this proclamation saying that the move won’t happen for three years and Trump’s words won’t change anything with how the US interacts with Israel (8). Tillerson – “we are not changing or taking a position on the boundaries of sovereignty in Jerusalem,” he said, “including geographic boundaries.” (9). As to the repercussions of this mostly hollow act – it immediately drew condemnation from US allies in Europe (10). Palestinian officials would “…bolster extremists’ calls for holy wars and delegitimize the United States as an arbiter in the peace process.” (11). The Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas added “These procedures do also help in the extremist organizations to wage a religious war that would harm the entire region, which is going through critical moments and would lead us into wars that will never end, which we have warned about and always urged to fight against” (12). The Organization of Islamic Countries called the US decision “dangerous” (13). I grant you that Trump said things. In that sense this is true.

– Defense Spending: Increased – This is sort of true. Both the Senate and the House have passed budgets increasing Defense Spending, but the $700 billion plan exceeds the budget cap of $549 billion that was established by the Budget and Control Act of 2011. (14) Before the defense budget goes into effect Congress will need to pass an appropriations bill in 2018.

– Hillary Clinton: Still Not President Hillary Clinton is still not President. This is accurate. The obsession that Trump supporters have with Hillary Clinton is bizarre and concerning. The misogyny runs deep in these cretins.

– “Catch and Release” Policy: Gone – As with many of the entries on this list, this one is misleading. It is true that Trump signed an Executive Order rescinding the President Obama era policy called “Catch and Release” (15). This had a temporary effect of reducing illegal immigration in the early months of the trump regime as word of this policy spread across the border. However, as of last month, the Washington Times is reporting that a “de-facto catch-and-release policy for illegal immigrants” has been reinstated on account of the fact that illegal immigration has “surged one again” (16). In October during a Senate Judiciary hearing, Senator Ted Cruz asked Attorney General Sessions why the US is still operating under the Obama era “Catch and Release” policy. (17) Moreover, it seems that there were no actual changes to how the policy was enforced by Immigration and Customs Enforcement. (18) So. It is true that the official policy is gone, it is also true that it continues to be implemented without change.

-Illegal Border Crossings: Down 50% – This is tricky. If you compare the single month rates of March 2016 and March 2017, there is indeed a 52% decrease in illegal immigration. (19). But of course a single month comparison neither explains the trend nor gives context. The fact is illegal immigration has been on the decline since 2000. (20). And although Trumps rhetoric appears to have had an impact on immigration in general, it’s not clear that any policy decisions have done much to effect it. Currently, illegal immigration is on the rise. This statement appears to be true only under a very limited interpretation.

– Neil Gorsuch: Confirmed to Supreme Court – This is true.

– Unemployment Rate: 4.1% (17 year low) – This is true.  But as with most things on this list this data point doesn’t tell the whole story. {This answer is reproduced from one of my previous articles – https://sammadan1.wordpress.com/2017/12/10/trumps-lies-resulted-in-me-reading-about-the-economy/ }   The US economy added 228,000 jobs in November 2017! Yay! Unfortunately, wage growth was only 2.5%. So there are some jobs but employees aren’t being paid in a way that matches up with the growth in jobs. Also, 228,000 jobs is fairly terrible when you compare the previous eight years of growth. Unemployment has been dropping steadily since 2009 when it was 9.3 %.  For comparison, “In 2009 when Obama took office, the U.S. labor market was facing record-high unemployment—the highest since the early 1980s recession—and job losses due to the financial crisis. In January of 2009—the month Obama was inaugurated—the American economy lost 791,000 jobs. Now—eight years later—the U.S. has experienced 75 consecutive months of job growth.”

– Paris Climate Accords: Withdrawn – This is also complicated. Technically, we were never “in” it which makes is hard to “withdraw” from it. Let’s put that aside though and address what I presume is the real point here, to wit, climate change is a hoax. Teaching Conservatives about science is beyond the scope of this particular essay, but suffice to say that climate change is real, and it is a very acute threat to humanity. I think right wing ignorance is well summed up by Trumps tweet from yesterday where he puts his stupid on for the world to see. In it he demonstrates that he doesn’t know the difference between “weather” and “climate” (21).

– US Relations with Israel: Revitalized – This is kind of a mixed bag. Although President Obama had a rocky tenure with Israel (in spite of a $38 Billion-dollar aid package given to them), Trump’s early pro-Israel rhetoric has yielded few tangible results. Much fanfare was given to his ill-advised proclamation to move the US Embassy to Jerusalem, much like everything else Trump has bloviated about, nothing has actually happened with this. In fact, Tillerson says it will be years before such a move takes place. You might recall this past May that Trump gave classified information that was from Israel directly to Russia (22). Trump’s fascination with Russia has also brought both tactical and strategic problems to Israel with regards to Syria. (23) The talks the Trump administration is engaged in with Russia with regards to Syria overlooked Israeli concerns (24). We also can not overlook Trump’s famous proclamation “…looking at two-state and one-state, and I like the one that both parties like.” (25). Two last points 1. I’m not clear on the definition of “revitalized”, so make of that what you will; and 2. Regardless of the truth of this assertation, the Middle East is a volatile and complicated issue. Trump supporting Evangelicals view these “pro-Israel” statements as signed of the End of Times and the looming Rapture. They don’t give a shit about Israel or the death and violence these statements are causing. They simply rejoice that they are pushing them one step closer to the Apocalypse.

– TPP: Withdrawn – True. Trump pulled the US out of the TPP. Interestingly, during his Asia trip last month he was lobbying for “…lower trade barriers, better protections for intellectual property, and more banking transparency” (26). Or, precisely what the TPP stipulated. This administration has put out confused and conflicted policy regarding trade, and it has left the world confused. Maybe this is the plan, but the result of it is that other countries are stepping in to fill the vacuum left by the US’s withdrawal and bizarre messaging. The other counties involved in the TPP are negotiating right now and will soon have a trade deal that beings benefit and wealth to them, while we are out there flapping in the breeze.

– Tax Code: Rewritten (First Time Since 1986) – This is false. There have been many “rewrites” to the US tax code. But this person appears to be singling out the Reagan tax reform of 1986 (27). In truth, there are changes to the tax code regularly. In 1993 Clinton brought a moderate tax increase into code, in 1997 a negative income tax was added to the code (28). Bush introduced a tax cut in 2001. Also in recent years, the top tax rate was changed to 39.6%, the number of tax brackets had changed, a “cornucopia of new tax breaks and loopholes was added” (29). Here are some other facts for you to chew on. The 1986 tax bill was followed by a recession in 1990 (30). Clinton raised taxes and the economy grew even faster than with Reagan’s tax cut! (31). Here is one more tidbit – in 2012 the non-partisan Congressional Tax Report found that there is “… no correlation between the top tax rates and economic growth”. (32)

– Obamacare Individual Mandate: Repealed – This is true. Although this isn’t a repeal of Obamacare as 44% of Republicans erroneously believe. (33) Moreover, this speaks to a major problem I have with Conservatism. Conservative policies represent the worst vision of a Road Warrior-esque world where each citizen has a gun in one hand while the other hand waves away any compassion and sympathy for other people. They don’t want to pay taxes because they don’t want their money helping any other people. They believe that if you’re poor, you must be lazy. They believe that it’s not a coincidence that People of Color are over represented in prison and poverty.

– ISIS Caliphate: Collapsed – This is false. ISIS may have lost territory in 2017, but their influence and ideology still represent a significant threat to the US. Multiple counter-terrorism experts and think tanks are reporting that 2018 will see an increase in ISIS-inspired attacks (34). Their propaganda machine will continue unabated (35). Schizophrenic and ineffective policies from the US will continue to foster hatred and despair. 25,000 foreign fighters from 100 nations have entered into Syria to fight (36).  Mubaraz Ahmed, analyst at the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change “The underlying ideology that drives the violence of groups like ISIS is not a physical entity that can be stopped by territorial borders” (37). Not only has ISIS not been stopped, Al-Qaida has been revitalized. Osama bin Laden’s son, Hamza, is calling for renewed attacks on the West. (38). ISIS has celebrated Trump – they claim that as a direct result of Trump’s election that fighters are flocking to their cause. (39). And although ISIS has lost most of their territory in Iraq, they are regrouping in the desert between Syria and Iraq, as well as in Libya, Egypt, and Afghanistan. (40). Moreover, this is a childish way to think about counter terrorism and counter insurgency war. Non-linear conflict doesn’t require the control of land to be effective. But thinking like this has led to US support of the Saudi led war in Yemen that has resulted in one of the worst calamities to affect the modern world – starvation, civil unrest, and cholera to name just a few of the atrocities happening in Yemen right now that the US is party to.

This concludes my periodic check in with MAGA. Please use any of this to refute the MAGA in your lives. I don’t have any in mine as I have cut all ties with them. (I will never forgive nor forget).

Daniel P. Cashman, EAMP, MS (AOM)

 

 

  1. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-switch/wp/2017/12/19/this-gop-net-neutrality-bill-aims-to-replace-some-but-not-all-of-the-fccs-rules/?utm_term=.15ff31d99c25
  2. http://money.cnn.com/2017/12/15/technology/business/net-neutrality/index.html
  3. Ibid
  4. https://www.cnbc.com/2017/12/26/how-the-net-neutrality-repeal-could-affect-online-business-owners.html
  5. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Positions_on_Jerusalem
  6. Ibid
  7. Ibid
  8. http://www.cnn.com/2017/12/07/politics/state-officials-defend-jerusalem-decision/index.html
  9. Ibid
  10. http://www.latimes.com/politics/washington/la-na-pol-essential-washington-updates-legal-impact-of-trump-s-jerusalem-1512680351-htmlstory.html
  11. http://www.cnn.com/2017/12/06/middleeast/jerusalem-israel-us-intl/index.html
  12. Ibid
  13. http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/12/oic-leaders-reject-trump-decision-jerusalem-171213095417995.html
  14. https://militarybenefits.info/2018-defense-budget-overview/
  15. https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/executive-order-border-security-immigration-enforcement-improvements/
  16. https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2017/nov/15/catch-and-release-illegal-immigrant-restarted-texa/
  17. https://www.texastribune.org/2017/10/18/cruz-presses-sessions-catch-and-release-policy/
  18. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-immigration-detention/despite-trump-vow-to-end-catch-and-release-he-is-still-freeing-thousands-of-migrants-idUSKBN18X1G4
  19. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fact-checker/wp/2017/04/11/president-trumps-claim-that-illegal-immigration-is-down-64-percent-because-of-his-administration/?utm_term=.c0003fcaacb8
  20. Ibid
  21. https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/28/climate/trump-tweet-global-warming.html
  22. http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/donald-trump-russia-israel-intelligence-share-isis-mossad-spies-sergei-lavrov-kislyak-us-a8071086.html
  23. https://www.brookings.edu/blog/markaz/2017/10/10/is-trump-ruining-the-u-s-israeli-relationship/
  24. Ibid
  25. https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/remarks-president-trump-prime-minister-netanyahu-israel-joint-press-conference/
  26. https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/trump-tpp-asia-trip_us_5a01ebe0e4b06ff32c93c4a2
  27. https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/americas-long-complicated-history-tax-reform
  28. https://www.investopedia.com/articles/tax/10/concise-history-tax-changes.asp
  29. http://theweek.com/articles/736325/history-tax-reform
  30. Ibid
  31. Ibid
  32. https://www.forbes.com/sites/rickungar/2012/11/02/non-partisan-congressional-tax-report-debunks-core-conservative-economic-theory-gop-suppresses-study/#7f96d28522e6
  33. http://www.newsweek.com/trump-repeal-obamacare-republicans-believe-761145
  34. https://www.cnbc.com/2017/12/28/terror-isis-and-al-qaeda-likely-to-carry-out-more-attacks-in-2018.html
  35. Ibid
  36. Ibid

37 Ibid

  1. http://www.newsweek.com/hamza-bin-laden-calls-muslims-avenge-death-his-father-osama-704276
  2. http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/isis-attacks-new-york-us-african-american-fighter-donald-trump-message-war-islam-vulnerable-a8130671.html
  3. Ibid
Standard
civics, current events, democracy, government, politics

From Democracy to Dictatorship

“The probable outcome of too much freedom is only too much slavery in the individual and the state.  Probably, then, tyranny develops out of no other constitution than democracy–from the height of liberty, I take it, the fiercest extreme of servitude … Is it not always the way of the masses to put forward one man as its special champion and protector and cherish and magnify him? This, then, is plain, … when a tyrant arises he sprouts from a protectorate root and from nothing else.” (1)

With these words Plato warns us of the pitfalls of democracy. This is the basic formula –

  1. The citizens have so much freedom in the democracy that they won’t accept limits on what they can do – unlimited opportunities to buy and use at will.
  2. Eventually, they hit a wall, and are unable to continue to enjoy unlimited opportunity. They outgrow the system’s ability to accommodate their desires.
  3. This causes frustration and anger – why doesn’t money grow on trees?!??! A populist comes along offering to overcome the aforementioned limitations. This leads to a new form of government.
  4. This new government will remove the “perils and difficulties” of self-governance through the use of unfettered executive power. (2)

This warning is a general statement; but it speaks to the arc of American democracy as it has been playing out these last 200 years. A vague warning about an unhappy end, easily dismissed as alarmist given how good the last eight years have been for most Americans. (As an aside, I would argue that even the majority of those who felt they had It bad were lacking in awareness of what “bad” could actually have looked like.)

This past year has seen a sinister and troubling turn away from democratic norms by a wholly unqualified dictator wannabe. We have in Trump the fulfillment of Plato’s warning.  A populist who feeds upon racism, misogyny, and fear – both exaggerating the problems and promising that only he can save them.

Plato was not alone in describing the way democracy dies. Benjamin Franklin said, “Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety” (3)

Where Plato saw the root of authoritarianism coming out of economic angst, Franklin saw a threat coming from fear. The Washington Post’s new Trump-era slogan “Democracy dies in darkness” is a warning to how a demagogue can use ignorance to promote fear and angst.

Fear as a tool of control should not be ignored. Americans were quick to jump into line after the attacks of 9/11 – wordlessly acquiescing to restrictions on our freedoms as seen in the PATRIOT Act – a piece of legislation passed hastily by Congress 45 days after the attack. This bill was the first of many laws that made it easier for the government to spy on American citizens. It gave the government permission to monitor email and phone communications, collect bank and credit reporting records, and track the activity of innocent Americans on the internet. (4). And there’s more. Recent years have seen the executive branch move further and further away from both accountability and the rule of law. The law against torture has been suspended (5), the balance in power shared between the legislative and the executive branches has been eroded (in fact, it seems that currently Congress is completely powerless in the face of Trumps outlandish behaviors). We tide of totalitarianism is currently being held back only by the Judicial Branch. The executive has declared its right to suspend habeas corpus indefinitely, and detain and torture anyone is decides is an “enemy combatant”. (6).

Some people believe that this couldn’t possibly happen to us. That somehow, we are immune to the consequences of our actions. “It hasn’t affected me” is often seen on social media as the naysayers downplay the words of those who are watching the White House in earnest. Citizens with enough historical context to know about how minorities are always purged when authoritarians take over. Jews in Germany, peasant “enemies of the state” in Russia. Homosexuals in Chechnya and Egypt.

These same people are seemingly unaware of Hugo Chavez’s journey from democratically elected leader of Venezuela to dictator of Venezuela. In the course of just a few years he “won” approval of a constitutional reform that allowed him to seek reelection indefinitely (7). In echoes of Trump, Chavez forged an “intensely ideological, combative, and intolerant” regime, that used “polarizing rhetoric to incite class warfare and abusing the tools of the state to suppress and persecute his opponents. (8)

I have written about this previously (https://sammadan1.wordpress.com/2017/07/23/whats-happening-in-venezuela-and-why-it-matters/).

Chavez’s work is being continued by Maduro – killing demonstrators, jailing political opponent’s, postponing elections, and creating a special body that he controls that supplanted the countries parliament. (9)

So, when Trump calls for the jailing of Hillary Clinton (10), and works to supplant the CIA with his own private intelligence agency (11) he is following in the long tradition of dictators throughout history.

Modern history is filled with democratic countries subverted and their governments taken over by dictators who were voted into office; Germany and France were stable democracies that became dictatorships in just this way. (You may even include countries like Egypt and Iran that weren’t exactly stable democracies but who nonetheless ended up with dictators).  You can watch what is going on in Honduras right now. Violent clashes around the election where at least 22 people have died (12). Democracy is being tested in real time – what will the results of this conflict be?

When experts who study authoritarian regimes – like Ruth Ben-Ghiat and Sheri Berman – draw parallels between Trump and the rise of other dictators, we should listen.  It can happen here.

Another route to dictatorship happens when demagogues find a way to make bad policies that incite either economic, military or political crisis. (13) Take for example the FCC’s decision to repeal the Obama era Net Neutrality rules. Ignore for a moment whether you think it’s a good or bad thing. The fact is 83% of Americans favor keeping them. (14). In a representative democracy our elected officials are supposed to be instituting policies that are aligned with the desires of their constituents.

Or take the Tax Bill that is being reconciled right now in Congress. The monstrosity that Congress has produced is the least popular tax bill in history with 61% of Americans against it. (15)

Or look at the Concealed Reciprocity Bill, although it has not been signed into law as of yet. This bill is unpopular with Americans across the board, to include the 44 % of Republicans who favor more strict gun laws! (16). Or the de facto repeal of the Affordable Care Act in the new tax bill – the ACA enjoys a 52% favorability rating (17). This list goes on and on – and these unpopular, reckless decisions are being made by a president who has a 32% approval rating himself.

Again – leaders who want to consolidate power create crisis through bad policy. The signs are there…if you aren’t afraid for our country you aren’t paying attention.

Moreover – what kind of politicians go out of their way to create laws that their constituents don’t agree with?

Maybe ones that don’t see the need for a vote in their future.

 

Daniel Cashman, EAMP

 

 

  1. http://www.worldfuturefund.org/wffmaster/Reading/Quotes/plato.htm
  2. https://www.theatlantic.com/daily-dish/archive/2008/09/how-democracies-become-dictatorships/211352/
  3. https://www.npr.org/2015/03/02/390245038/ben-franklins-famous-liberty-safety-quote-lost-its-context-in-21st-century
  4. https://www.aclu.org/issues/national-security/privacy-and-surveillance/surveillance-under-patriot-act
  5. https://www.theatlantic.com/daily-dish/archive/2008/09/how-democracies-become-dictatorships/211352/
  6. Ibid
  7. http://www.aei.org/publication/from-democracy-to-dictatorship/
  8. Ibid
  9. https://www.vox.com/world/2017/9/19/16189742/venezuela-maduro-dictator-chavez-collapse
  10. http://www.cnn.com/2016/10/09/politics/eric-holder-nixon-trump-presidential-debate/index.html
  11. https://theintercept.com/2017/12/04/trump-white-house-weighing-plans-for-private-spies-to-counter-deep-state-enemies/
  12. http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/12/hernandez-declared-winner-honduras-disputed-election-171218082740078.html
  13. https://www.forbes.com/sites/jimpowell/2013/02/05/how-dictators-come-to-power-in-a-democracy/#16e0c76e7ff7
  14. http://thehill.com/policy/technology/364528-poll-83-percent-of-voters-support-keeping-fccs-net-neutrality-rules
  15. http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2017/11/gop-has-written-the-least-popular-tax-bill-in-recent-history.html
  16. http://www.newsweek.com/mayors-oppose-concealed-carry-guns-629401
  17. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/obamacare-repeal-has-never-been-more-popular/
Standard
civics, current events, democracy, government, politics

Trump’s Lies Resulted in Me Reading About the Economy

I don’t delve into economics when I write because to be honest I don’t know anything about it. In what will certainly become the worst thing that sexual predator has done to me, I’ve had to research economics and think about math.  With all of the talk of the Senate tax bill, I have been bombarded with an onslaught of lies from Trump and his apologists and now I am forced to write about it.

In 2016 Trump campaigned on a platform of bullshit and lies; his followers, bewilderingly as hostile and angry as they were before they “won”, now repeat these lies as gospel. So here is my rebuttal. My point here is less about predicting the effects of the yet-to-be-signed-into-legislation bill, and more to show that Trump is a liar.

As always, feel free to use any of this to humiliate your racist and ignorant Trump supporting family members.

  Trump promised the US would step away from NAFTA (1) – First of all, we haven’t stepped away from it and it has not be “re-negotiated”. In spite of him calling it a bad deal NAFTA has – increased trade and investment (2), American manufacturing, services, and agriculture have all become more competitive as markets have expanded and supply chains have integrated (3), more than two million manufacturing workers at more than 43,000 firms in the US depend on exports to Canada and Mexico (4), the combined platform of Mexico, Canada, and the USA are a vastly more competitive platform than the US alone in facing China (5).

NAFTA has also strengthened Democracy in Mexico and encouraged counter-drug and terrorism cooperation (6).

Trump has promised to get tough with countries that violate trade agreements (7) These accusations have been laid on China whom he accused of “raping the US economy” (8), and he had been expected to announce a “section 301 case” against China. This would have allowed the US to impose tariffs and other trade restrictions. But instead he commanded his trade representative Robert Lighthizer to “study the issue” (9).

He called for a 35% tariff on Mexican imports and a 45% tariff on Chinese imports. (10) I can’t find anything that says that there have been any changes to tariffs on Mexican or Chinese imports (to include looking at the International Trade Administration site).

Taxes! (11) Trump campaigned on cutting taxes for everyone, reducing the number of federal income tax brackets from seven to three, reducing the top rate of the tax from 39.6% to 33%, closing tax loopholes that typically favor the rich, and giving parents of young children a tax break on childcare. (12) I understand that no tax bill has been signed into law, in spite of Trump saying that it was a priority. (Of course, NO SIGNIFICANT LEGISLATION of any kind has been passed by these buffoons.)

Anyway. Let’s look at each point with the monstrosity that the Senate just copped together.

  • cutting taxes for everyone – True. But this bill heavily favors the wealthiest Americans. The Senate bill will indeed cut taxes for everyone, with the highest income earners getting the biggest cuts, with the top 1% of earners getting 20% of the total cut (13). The ultra-rich would also get to deduct up to $10,000 from their 529 plan when they send their kids to expensive private schools. You probably don’t have one of these. (2/3 of American’s said they don’t know what this is (14)). Big companies will also be getting a repatriation holiday that the Senate says companies will use to reinvest into core businesses (which might lead to economic growth). The last time the government issued a repatriation tax holiday, corporations primarily spent the money on stock buybacks. (15)
  • reducing the number of federal income tax brackets from seven to three – the Senate bill keeps seven brackets (16)
  • reducing the top rate of the tax from 39.6% to 33% – Big fail here for the Senate bill – 38.5 % (17)
  • closing tax loopholes that typically favor the rich – Senate bill keeps the “carried interest” loophole which allows hedge fund managers and real estate investors to pay the lowest capital gain tax rate (18). It also avoids hitting private equity and venture capital (19). It also repeals the estate tax and the alternative minimum tax (20)
  • giving parents of young children a tax break on childcare – this he made good on, doubling the deduction from $1000 to $2000, but it expires in 2025. (So have them kids now!) (21)

Reduce the corporate tax rate from 35% to 15% (22) – The Senate bill would bring it to 20%. So, not exactly a lie. But there are a number of other lies rolled into this. First, Trump has repeatedly said that the US has the highest corporate tax rate in the world. We don’t. (It’s fourth). (23) He said that lowering the tax rate would lead to more jobs. It won’t. That‘s a lie Republicans tell themselves. (24) The money for this tax break will be coming out of your healthcare (8 million from the ACA, and 5 million from Medicaid (25)). Paul Ryan also has indicated that the GOP will be attacking welfare, Medicare, and Social Security to pay for this (26)

Trump promised $1 Billion for infrastructure.   “We’re gonna rebuild our infrastructure, which will become, by the way, second to none. And we’re going to put millions of people to work as we rebuild it.” (27) As of December 2017, there is no infrastructure bill. There is a plan to have one in January 2018 (28).  He has promised jobs and economic growth as a result of his plan. Of course, all that they have done so far is to give vague plans and platitudes.

Trump promised millions of jobs. (29) The US economy added 228,000 jobs in November 2017! Yay! Unfortunately wage growth was only 2.5%. So there are some jobs but employees aren’t being paid in a way that matches up with the growth in jobs. Also, 228,000 jobs is fairly terrible when you compare the previous eight years of growth. Unemployment has been dropping steadily since 2009 when it was 9.3 % (30).  For comparison, “In 2009 when Obama took office, the U.S. labor market was facing record-high unemployment—the highest since the early 1980s recession—and job losses due to the financial crisis. In January of 2009—the month Obama was inaugurated—the American economy lost 791,000 jobs. Now—eight years later—the U.S. has experienced 75 consecutive months of job growth.” (31)

He promised a 4% economic growth rate (32). Fun Fact: America hasn’t seen a 4% economic growth rate since DEMOCRAT Bill Clinton was president in the 1990s. Economic predictions for 2017 have the growth rate pegged at 2.4% (33) (The EXACT same rate as when President Obama left office in 2016). So…no growth there. At all. Good job #MAGA!

The GOP is about to take us all to the cleaners. This tax bill that they have composed is the largest transfer of wealth to the upper class in history. My point, if I have one, is that Trump fed his supporters a bucket of shit and they appear to be happy to choke to death on it. Maybe this tax plan does something good – I’m surely not an economist. I did see that in 2019 the poorest 20% will save $40 on their taxes.

 

Daniel Cashman, EAMP, MS(AOM)

 

 

  1. http://www.bbc.com/news/business-37921635
  2. https://www.forbes.com/sites/nathanielparishflannery/2017/08/28/is-donald-trump-right-about-nafta/#3e1b27c842e7
  3. Ibid
  4. Ibid
  5. Ibid
  6. Ibid
  7. http://www.bbc.com/news/business-37921635
  8. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/aug/15/donald-trump-china-trade-war-investigation
  9. Ibid
  10. http://www.bbc.com/news/business-37921635
  11. Ibid
  12. Ibid
  13. http://www.businessinsider.com/trump-tax-plan-rich-people-benefits-2017-11
  14. https://www.cnbc.com/2015/09/15/529-savings-plan-assets-grow-but-many-still-dont-use-them.html
  15. http://www.businessinsider.com/trump-tax-plan-rich-people-benefits-2017-11
  16. https://www.forbes.com/sites/kellyphillipserb/2017/12/03/from-tax-rates-to-deductions-comparing-the-house-senate-bills-to-current-law/#46d0c41b73b0
  17. Ibid
  18. https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/09/business/carried-interest-tax-loophole.html
  19. Ibid
  20. http://www.businessinsider.com/trump-tax-plan-rich-people-benefits-2017-11
  21. https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/winners-losers-senate-tax-bill-n827856
  22. http://www.bbc.com/news/business-37921635
  23. https://taxfoundation.org/corporate-income-tax-rates-around-the-world-2017/
  24. https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/30/opinion/corporate-tax-cuts-jobs.html?mtrref=www.google.com&gwh=120CEBA6F2616E7781313373FE2D3219&gwt=pay&assetType=opinion
  25. https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/11/29/16712430/senate-tax-bill-change-federal-health-care
  26. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2017/12/01/gop-eyes-post-tax-cut-changes-to-welfare-medicare-and-social-security/?utm_term=.c061099da89c
  27. http://www.bbc.com/news/business-37921635
  28. http://thehill.com/policy/transportation/363813-trump-to-release-infrastructure-plan-next-month-report
  29. http://www.bbc.com/news/business-37921635
  30. https://www.statista.com/statistics/193290/unemployment-rate-in-the-usa-since-1990/
  31. https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2017/01/december-jobs-report/512366/
  32. http://www.bbc.com/news/business-37921635
  33. Ibid
Standard
civics, current events, democracy, government, politics

The Road So Far – Trump and Russia

I have taken some time off from thinking and writing about politics – nothing drastic, mind you – but I needed a break and to reclaim some objectivity.

One of the insights that bubbled to the surface was the realization that although Trump and his cohorts are just as corrupt and evil as I’ve been warning of for a year, they are also unbelievably stupid and comically incompetent.

My initial writing on the subject were very alarmist, borderline paranoid. In my defense however, I would say that the full enormity of their incompetence wasn’t clear a year ago. Also, the country is very big and the bureaucracy ponderous. It’s telling that even with majorities in the House and Senate Republicans have accomplished precisely nothing.

As I have started to reintegrate into the news cycle one of the common themes I have noticed is the disbelief by the Right in any connections between Trump and Russia. There is another camp that, perplexingly given that Republicans have been the cheerleaders for pro-America foreign policy for my whole life, seems to think that working with the Russians is a good idea. Perhaps this is my own bias – I joined the Army in 1990 when the Russians were the actual enemy, so I don’t have any real hang ups in thinking they aren’t our friends. Nothing against the Russians of course, but glasnost seems to have been long forgotten.

Let’s take a look into the facts about Russia and their connections to the Trump administration. My intention is not to provide analysis, only to allow my readers a quick reference to shut down anyone who says that there is no “Russiagate”. (Note that the “Conjecture” points listed at the bottom are also pulled from the cited articles)

Fact:

  1. Michael Flynn pled guilty to “lying to the FBI about his contacts with Russia” (1) with regard to meeting with Sergei Kislyak.
  2. Michael Flynn was fired (or forced to resign depending on which lie you believe) from the National Security Council for lying to Michael Pence (2) Also, don’t forget that Flynn was ALSO FIRED by President Obama.
  3. Court documents say multiple members of Trump’s team coordinated the specifics of Flynn’s outreach to Russia and knew that the conversations were about sanctions. (3)
  4. Former FBI Director Comey has said that Trump asked him to shut down the investigation into the Trump transition team members. (4)
  5. Trump fired Comey in May and said that the Russia investigation was on his mind at the time. (5)
  6. In addition to examing whether Trump’s campaign colluded with Russia during the election and whether or not anyone on the team attempted to cover it up, Special Counsel Mueller is investigating whether the firings of Flynn or Comey amount to obstruction of justice. (6)
  7. Flynn was interviewed by the FBI four days after Trump was sworn into office because American intelligence agencies had grown concerned about Flynn’s communications with (7)
  8. Acting Attorney General Sally Yates warned the White House that Flynn might be compromised by the Russians. (8)
  9. Flynn attended a dinner in Moscow in 2015 where he sat at the same table as Putin. (9)
  10. Flynn formed a consulting group after being fired by President Obama that let to inquiries into questionable lobbying for foreign governments to include Turkey. (10)
  11. Investigators working for Mueller have questioned witnesses about whether Flynn was secretly paid by Turkish officials during the campaign. Keep in mind that Flynn himself has disclosed that the Turkish government had paid him more than a half-million dollars to represent its interests in a dispute with the United States. (11)
  12. Flynn has made “materially false statements and omissions” in his federal filings about his lobbying work. (12)
  13. Prosecutors said they would delay Flynn’s sentencing – a sign that their investigation is not over. (13)
  14. Kushner failed to report contacts with Russian government representatives and agents on his SF-86 (the form that is used to get a security clearance with the US government) (14)
  15. Kushner tried to get a secret phone line set up in the Russian Embassy without informing the US government, that would allow him to make secure calls to members of the Russian government without being able to be listened to by US intelligence. (15)
  16. Kushner testified to Congress that he had no contacts with Wikileaks, and then was forced to retract that after emails surfaced showing that he did have contact. (16)
  17. The Senate Judiciary Committee has uncovered evidence that Kushner was forwarded a document about a “Russian backdoor overture” that Kushner failed to hand over to the panel’s investigators. He also failed to provide investigators with a September 2016 email he was sent about Wikileaks, nor did he hand over other communications with a Russian businessman that were forwarded to him. (17)
  18. Donald Trump Jr. had repeated communications with Wikileaks on Twitter. (18)
  19. Kushner has not produced phone records that Senate investigators believe exist. (19)
  20. George Papadopoulos pleads guilty to lying to the FBI about his contacts with Russia. (20)
  21. Rick Gates arrested for defrauding the US government, laundering money, and hiding his work as a foreign agent. Gates has long standing ties with Russian oligarchs. (21)
  22. Paul Manafort indicted by a federal grand jury for 12 counts including conspiracy against the United States, conspiracy to launder money, unregistered agent of a foreign principal, false statements, and others. (22)
  23. Manafort has been the subject of a longstanding investigation due to his past dealings in the Ukraine – for which he did not file as a foreign agent until 2017. (23)
  24. Manafort was in $17 million in debt to “pro-Russian” interests. (24)
  25. Manafort took at least 18 trips to Moscow and frequently talked to Putin allies for 10 years. He also traveled to Kiev at least 19 times in 20 months starting in 2014. (25)
  26. Trump has not implemented sanctions against Russia as mandated by Congressional legislation. (26)
  27. House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence is looking into a data analytics company called Cambridge Analytica as part of its investigation into possible collusion between the Trump campaign and Russia during the 2016 election. (27)
  28. Congressional investigators believe that Russian hackers have received help in their efforts to distribute “fake news” and other forms of misinformation during the 2016 campaign. Trump hired Cambridge Analytica to take over its data operations – these operations were overseen by (28)
  29. The former Director of National Intelligence James Clapper said that the intelligence community’s conclusion that Russians sought to influence the 2016 election “cast doubt on the legitimacy” of Trump’s (29)
  30. Department of Homeland Security informed 21 states that they were Russian hacking targets leading up to the 2016 election (30)
  31. The CIA has concluded that Russia intervened in the 2016 election in order to help Trump win. (31)
  32. Trump Jr. confirmed he met with a Russian lawyer during the campaign after she promised to turn over damaging information about Clinton. (32)
  33. Trump shared classified information regarding ISIS threats with the Russian Foreign Minister – this information was given to the US by Israel and was not supposed to be shared. (33)
  34. The Department of Justice appointed former FBI Director Robert Mueller to oversee a federal investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 election. (34)
  35. White Trump was actively running for president his business attempted to secure a new real estate development in Moscow. (35)

Conjecture:

  1. Jared Kushner was involved in the contacts with Russia that Michael Flynn lied to the FBI about. (36)
  2. Flynn and Kislyak discussed removing US sanctions against Russia. (37)
  3. Flynn asked Kislyak to help delay a UN vote seen as damaging to Israel – in an apparent attempt to undermine the policies of President Obama. (38)
  4. A “very senior member” of Trump’s transition team told Flynn to contact Russia and other foreign governments to try and influence the UN vote referenced above. (39). This would seemingly implicate other members of Trump’s inner circle.
  5. Members of Trump’s campaign may have sought to ease sanctions on Russia in return for financial gain or because Russian officials held some leverage over them. (40)
  6. One motivation for Trump’s efforts to shut down the Flynn investigation is to “avoid revealing the deep involvement of his top transition officials in Flynn’s discussions with Kislayak.” (41)
  7. Trump met with Russian officials in June 2016 who said they had damaging information on Clinton and that they wanted to share it with him as part of their support for his campaign. (42)
  8. Jeff Sessions lied about the Trump campaigns meetings with Russia. (43)

 

This list is not comprehensive. There are a lot of other agencies and players involved. There are more apparent lies told by various campaign officials under oath. There are wire taps, and money laundering. There are so many people in Trump’s circle that have ties to Russia that it’s kind of hard to believe. But these are facts. Trump and the people around him are under investigation by numerous government bodies, to include both bodies of Congress and the Department of Justice for their ties to Russia. Four members of his team have been indicted and charged with crimes. Serious felonies that include money laundering and CONSPIRACY AGAINST THE UNITED STATES.

Daniel P. Cashman, EAMP, MS (AOM)

 

 

 

 

  1. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-russia/flynn-pleads-guilty-to-lying-on-russia-cooperates-with-u-s-probe-idUSKBN1DV50N
  2. Ibid.
  3. https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/01/us/politics/michael-flynn-guilty-russia-investigation.html
  4. Ibid.
  5. Ibid.
  6. Ibid.
  7. Ibid.
  8. Ibid.
  9. Ibid.
  10. Ibid.
  11. Ibid.
  12. Ibid.
  13. Ibid.
  14. latimes.com/nation/la-na-pol-kushner-russia-20171203-story.html
  15. Ibid.
  16. Ibid.
  17. https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/16/us/politics/senate-judiciary-kushner-russia.html
  18. Ibid.
  19. Ibid.
  20. http://www.cnn.com/2017/10/30/politics/george-papadopolous-trump-guilty/index.html
  21. https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/rick-gates-once-the-man-in-the-corner-is-now-a-central-figure-in-mueller-investigation/2017/11/05/716708da-bfff-11e7-97d9-bdab5a0ab381_story.html?utm_term=.3c3187a88170
  22. http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2017/11/24/how-paul-manafort-is-connected-to-trump-russia-investigation.html
  23. Ibid.
  24. Ibid.
  25. Ibid.
  26. https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/nov/28/us-sanctions-bill-timebomb-donald-trump-vladimir-putin
  27. https://www.vox.com/policy-and…/cambridge-analytica-trump-kushner-flynn-russia
  28. Ibid.
  29. http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/352039-clapper-intelligence-community-assessment-cast-doubt-on-the
  30. http://thehill.com/policy/cybersecurity/351981-dhs-notifies-21-states-of-they-were-targets-russian-hacking
  31. http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2017/12/01/trump-and-russia-investigation-what-to-know.html
  32. Ibid.
  33. Ibid.
  34. Ibid.
  35. Ibid.
  36. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-russia/flynn-pleads-guilty-to-lying-on-russia-cooperates-with-u-s-probe-idUSKBN1DV50N
  37. Ibid.
  38. Ibid.
  39. Ibid.
  40. Ibid.
  41. https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/01/us/politics/michael-flynn-guilty-russia-investigation.html
  42. https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/…/donald-trump-jr-wikileaks-emails-democrats.html
  43. https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/11/3/16599426/jeff-sessions-russia-testimony
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